Dropping temperature and air pressure exacerbates chronic pain conditions.
Shifts in weather patterns can bring about changes in mood, outfits, and activities. For some people, though, a drop in temperature or air pressure—signaling an oncoming rainstorm—comes with increased aches in their joints.
Despite the widespread familiarity of this anecdote, the explanation for this phenomenon is hardly as clear as a summer’s day. Some studies have shown associations with temperature and/or humidity in people’s experience of tender or swollen joints.1-3 Researchers also noticed a temperature-dependent effect on cartilage-producing cells in mice.4
However, reviews and meta-analyses reveal conflicting findings on whether meteorological changes can affect joint pain and discomfort.1,5,6 These discrepancies may arise because many initial studies used small sample sizes, self-reported data, and inconsistent methodologies, making comparisons between them difficult.7
Nonetheless, Constance Chu, a surgeon scientist at Stanford University, has heard this complaint as well. “[For] my older patients, it’s almost predictable that when it turns cold, more people will come in.” She said that, although the precise reasons may differ between patients, weather could be affecting joint pain in many ways.
Weather Changes Rev Up an Inflammatory Chronic Pain Cycle
Unlike in the case of joint pain from acute injuries, Chu said that patients who report more pain when the weather changes are typically older and have a chronic pain condition like osteoarthritis. This condition leads to a degradation of cartilage between bones and in joints.
Kyle Allen started his research in biomechanics and gradually progressed into pain research. Today, his group studies how conditions like osteoarthritis cause chronic pain and disability.
Dave Schlenker
“Within the joint, it’s probably best described as a chronic wound healing response,” said Kyle Allen, a tissue engineer studying degenerative joint diseases and pain at the University of Florida. Cartilage fragments cause irritation in the surrounding tissue, leading to the release of synovial fluid, which is normally isolated in a cavity but can escape into the surrounding tissue with this irritation. Damaged cartilage will also drive an immune response, causing localized inflammation as immune cells and lymphatic fluid migrate into the joint.8
The combination of leaked synovial fluid and inflammation contributes to swelling and the pain associated with it. “That in itself, even without weather changes, can be uncomfortable, but if there are changes to the weather, then it compounds the discomfort that people can feel,” Chu said. For example, when the pressure drops, this fluid trapped in the joint will try to push against the tissue and nerves in the area.
The ongoing inflammation also leads to fibrosis in tissues, making them stiffer. Cold temperatures, Allen said, exacerbate this effect and lead to more discomfort. Additionally, he said that during cold and wet weather, changes in blood flow affect how sympathetic nerves respond to inflammation and pain, potentially creating feelings of discomfort or amplifying existing sensations in the joints.
Aging Tissues Remember Old Wounds in Bad Weather
In addition to inflammation causing joint pain that worsens with the weather, connective tissue loses elasticity and structure as people age; in collagen, a protein that makes up cartilage and other connective tissues, this leads to more water in the tissue, increasing swelling. Collagen also acquires crosslinks that increase the tissue’s stiffness.9,10
“If you have a change in either temperature or pressure, then one tissue is going to stay stiff. The other is going to swell more,” Chu said. “If some tissues are stiffer and there’s fluid in the joint, then there’s less room for expansion. And so, you can begin to see a scenario where there’s going to be more discomfort.”
Wet and wintry weather can also bring back unpleasant reminders of old injuries. Chu said that this may be influenced by how different people form scars during their healing process. “Some people develop better scars that are closer to the native tissue, and other people have denser scars,” she said. “Those are areas where, again, with change in weather, the stiffness and the material properties of that tissue are going to be different…You start to feel that with age.”
- Pezot M, et al. Association between weather features and symptoms in hand osteoarthritis: Results from the DIGICOD cohort. Osteoarthr Cartil Open. 2025;7(3):100639.
- Tanzer M, et al. Pain in the forecast: Investigating weather sensitivity before and after total knee arthroplasty. Life. 2025;15(6):847.
- Laverdiere C, et al. Weather the storm. Bone Joint J. 2025;107-B(5 Supple A):16-21.
- Zhang Y, et al. Cold exposure promotes the progression of osteoarthritis through downregulating APOE in cartilage. EMBO Mol Med. 2025;17(8):2137-2162.
- Hu C, et al. Association between weather conditions and rheumatoid arthritis: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Autoimmun Rev. 2025.
- Ferreira ML, et al. Come rain or shine: Is weather a risk factor for musculoskeletal pain? A systematic review with meta-analysis of case-crossover studies. Semin Arthritis Rheum. 2024;65:152392.
- Beukenhorst AL, et al. Are weather conditions associated with chronic musculoskeletal pain? Review of results and methodologies. PAIN. 2020;161(4):668-683.
- Arra M, Abu-Amer Y. Cross-talk of inflammation and chondrocyte intracellular metabolism in osteoarthritis. Osteoarthr Cartil. 2023;31(8):1012-1021.
- Kim JH, et al. Matrix cross-linking–mediated mechanotransduction promotes posttraumatic osteoarthritis. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2015;112(30):9424-9429.
- Takahashi M, et al. The effect of aging and osteoarthritis on the mature and senescent cross-links of collagen in human meniscus. J Arthrosc Rel Surg. 1998;14(4):366-372.
